Despite the worldwide uproar over the IPCC’s recent admission of a “regrettable error” about the rate of melting of Himalayan glaciers, glaciers around the world continue to disappear.
The IPCC’s 2007 report that “glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues,the likelihood of them “disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high.”
Glaciologist Lonnie Thompson of Ohio State University says Himalayan glaciers are thinning and retreating at a rapid pace, just not at a demonstrably faster rate than in many other parts of the world. But it’s hard to know for sure. Only about 600 of some 46,000 glaciers in that region are being monitored. Of those, 95% are in retreat. You can’t tell how much mass the glaciers are losing without first knowing the depth of affected glaciers so as to calculate their volume. Currently, such data are largely nonexistent.
A new study by a team from the Netherlands estimated the changes in the thickness of Himalayan glaciers and found that by 2050 the upstream flow of the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers could shrink 19.6% and 8.4%, respectively, despite 25% more rain.
The Brahmaputra and Indus basins are most susceptible to reductions of flow, threatening the food security of an estimated 60 million people.
The Ganges and Yangtze rivers could see declines of 17.6% and 5.2%, respectively.The Yellow River fares best, because melt water accounts for just 8% of its flow. With rainfall predicted to rise by 14%, the river is projected to be able to feed an extra 3 million people by 2050.
Glaciers continue to melt in South America. Glacier Number 15 of Antisana, one of the Ecuadorian capitals’ main sources of potable water, lost at least 36% of its original mass in the last 50 years. The Antisana is a snow-capped peak of the eastern branch of the Andes, 50 kilometers to the east. Cotopaxi, one of the world’s highest active volcanoes whose snow-covered cone can also be seen from Quito, lost 40% of its glacial mass between 1976 and 2006. The same is happening to glaciers in the Real (Royal) 888 branch of the Andes in Bolivia and the Blanca range in Peru and Colombia, which have lost 30% of their mass on average.
In North America, the U.S. Geological Survey says Glacier National Park’s glaciers will be gone by 2020 – about ten years ahead of schedule. The park will soon need a new name.
In Africa, The Furtwängler Glacier near the summit of Kilimanjaro shrunk by almost half between 1976 and 2000 – and has since shrunk by an additional 26%. To the north of Kilimanjaro lies Mount Kenya, the second tallest mountain on the African continent. Mount Kenya has a number of small glaciers that have lost at least 45% of their mass since the middle of the 20th century. There were eighteen glaciers atop Mount Kenya in 1900. Now, only eleven remain – and four of those, as mere ghosts. The “Mountains of the Moon” glaciers of the Ruwenzori Mountains, which span the border of Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have shrunk by 50% over the past 50 years. The glacier on Uganda’s Mount Stanley – Africa’s third-highest mountain – has split due to excessive melting caused by climate change and has shrunk in size from about 2.3 square miles in the 1950s to its current coverage of less than one-half of a square mile. It is melting so rapidly it is expected to disappear entirely within 40 years.