Moving 12-month total on all highways

That’s now four straight months that VMT has been up over the year earlier figures. But the long-term trend remains down. In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 52 months – more than 4 years – and has a long way to recover before regaining the previous peak.

In Oregon, VMT was down 0.2% in March 2012 compared to March 2011, resuming the year-over-year descent in VMT interrupted last month for the first time in 14 months. Cumulative VMT in Oregon for 2012 is down 0.9% compared to 2011.

Gasoline prices in March came very close to reaching an average of $4/gallon. MasterCard data  showed the four-week moving average for demand for gasoline dropped for the 55th straight week through the end of March and into April, down 4.7% from a year earlier. Four-week demand fell 3.9% as of the week ending May 18. Four-week gasoline demand hasn’t topped the year-ago level since March 18, 2011. It’s hard to understand how VMT is up at the same time demand for gasoline is down.

Stuart Staniford at Early Warning notes that global crude + condensate production, which has been pretty much plateaued since late 2004, has now made new highs.

Staniford observes the data seem to be consistent with the view that in 2005 we entered into a situation in which it became very difficult to raise oil production and that placed significant constraints on the global economy. The slight upward slope to the trend line is not statistically significant, so global crude + condensate production is still on a flat plateau statistically speaking.

Crude oil production isn’t the whole story. Production of natural gas liquids, nonconventional oil (for example from Canada’s tar sands), and biofuels has been increasing. However, the net energy gained from these fuels is far less than from conventional crude. And global “available net exports” have been declining since 2005 while the proportion of those exports going to China and India has been increasing rapidly.

Given these realities, the chances that the downward trend in VMT in the U.S. will be reversed are slim. The U.S. may have seen peak  VMT.

This chart from Calculated Risk shows that auto sales are now plugging along at rates comparable to those in the mid-1990s.

The U.S. population and the number of licensed drivers have both increased by about 19% since 1995.

While auto sales are up a bit, MasterCard Inc. reports gasoline sales continue to drop. U.S. gasoline demand fell 0.4% last week, 5.6% below the year-earlier level. Gasoline consumption stayed below year-earlier levels for the 35th consecutive week. Fuel use over the previous four weeks fell 5.2% from the same period in 2011, a record 58th consecutive drop in that measure.

This chart from and article by Robert Rapier illustrates why high oil prices are here to stay despite dropping demand in the U.S. and Europe.

While auto sales have now rebounded from their “great recession” lows, it’s pretty clear that the long-term trend that has persisted since the beginning of the auto age has reversed and is now down rather than up.

However, the long-term trend remains down. In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 51 months – more than 4 years – and has a long way to recover before regaining the previous peak.

In Oregon, VMT was up 0.9% in February 2012 compared to February 2011 – the first year-over year increase in 14 months. Cumulative VMT for 2012 is down 1.2% compared to 2011.

The reported increase in VMT is a bit perplexing given the continuing plunge in U.S. petroleum and gasoline consumption. The chart below, by Tim Wallace and posted by Mish Shedlock,  shows Jan-Feb-March 2012 usage compared to the same three months in prior years.

Diesel fuel usage is down, too. The chart below (again from Mish) shows that Ceridian real-time diesel fuel usage through March is back to mid-2005 levels.

It’s a puzzle how VMT can be up at the same time gasoline and diesel consumption is falling sharply.

Things were soon to change. Oil production in the U.S. peaked in 1971. Linn County passed its first zoning ordinance in 1972, and in 1973 Oregon passed Senate Bill 100 and began to implement this country’s first statewide land use planning program.

In 1981, James Hansen published his first global temperature projection . . .

. . . a projection that has so far proved to be pretty darn good.

Since 2004 world oil production has remained within 5% of its peak despite historically high prices.

Now, almost 50 years later, Willamette Speedway wants to expand. As a nonconforming use, that should be pretty tough. A nonconforming use can be altered only if the alteration would have “no greater adverse impact to the neighborhood”.

The noise from the racetrack is bad enough. The roar of engines and the blaring of loudspeakers can be heard a dozen or more miles away, every weekend from late March to early October.

But the issues involve more than noise, which disturbs the tranquilly throughout the city and the countryside and must be insufferable for those who live close by. More than light from the towers lining the track. More than traffic on neighborhood streets.

The big issue is the continued celebration of the car culture. Driving as fast as you can around in a circle, going nowhere, burning precious fossil fuels, spewing greenhouse gas emissions in the process. Oil markets are global. The atmosphere doesn’t respect borders. Our neighborhood is bigger than Lebanon, bigger than Linn County. Our neighborhood is the world.

The time for indulgence of such foolishness is long past. Continued indulgence of such destructive profligacy is unconscionable. Like Christine, the car culture is a killer. And like Christine, that killer is refusing to die.

]]> http://casafoodshed.org/archives/2012/04/12/willamette-speedway-like-christine-the-car-culture-refuses-to-die/feed/ 0 http://casafoodshed.org/archives/2012/03/26/u-s-vmt-continues-downward-trend-auto-sales-remain-below-replacement-rate/ http://casafoodshed.org/archives/2012/03/26/u-s-vmt-continues-downward-trend-auto-sales-remain-below-replacement-rate/#comments Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:40:07 +0000 jim http://casafoodshed.org/?p=7594 The Federal Highway Administration reports travel on all roads and streets was up 1.6% for January 2012 as compared with January 2011.

However, the long-term trend remains down. In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 50 months – more than 4 years – and has a long way to recover before regaining the previous peak.

In the 13 western states, vehicle miles traveled was down 1.5% for January 2012 compared to January 2011. In Oregon, VMT was down 3.3% in January 2012 compared to January 2011. VMT in Oregon has now been down from the previous year for 13 straight months.

The uptick in VMT in January seems a bit of an anomaly. The EIA reports motor fuel consumption in the U.S. has been down by ~7% this year (the EIA notes that taking into account new methodology which now better accounts for the sharply increased exports seen beginning in 2010 and 2011, U.S. gasoline consumption in January 2012 was more realistically down only 4.3% rather than the 7% or so shown in its weekly reports). According to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse, U.S. gasoline demand fell 7.2% below a year earlier last week, the biggest drop in that measure in more than two years. Gasoline consumption has dropped by 3% over the last 52 weeks. The weekly consecutive decline in year-over-year consumption is longer than the 51-week slide during the recession.

The decline in gasoline consumption is consistent with gasoline prices, which have been rising in concert with crude oil prices. Despite high prices and weak economies in the OECD countries, global demand for oil is refusing to falter.  After hitting new record highs at the end of last year, global oil production is flattening once again, as seen in this chart from OPEC’s March Monthly Oil Market Report.

Reuters reports the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.93 on March 23. As seen in this chart from Gas Buddy, gas prices are beginning to approach heights last seen in the summer of 2008, just before the financial crisis and economic crash.

Auto sales in the U.S. so far this year are a bit of an anomaly, too. Sales were up 11% in January year-over-year, up 16% in February, and are expected to be up 6% in March. The first-quarter annual selling rate is expected to come in at 14.4 million vehicles. Last year, about 12.8 million vehicles were sold in the United States. U.S. auto sales averaged nearly 17 million vehicles a year in the 10-year period ending in 2007.

Meanwhile, auto sales in Europe have collapsed. New car sales were down 9.7% in February. Two months into the year, car sales in the EU are down 8.3% from the same period a year earlier. Mish at Global Economic Trend Analysis posts this chart . . .

. . . and excerpts this commentary:

The harmless looking percentages hide the fact that this February was the worst of the millennium. Only 888,878 units changed hands in the EU27 in February, the lowest level since comparing months made sense (going back further is futile, the EU was much smaller then…) Even during carmageddon, Europe had not seen a February as bad as this one.

EU basket cases Greece and Portugal saw their new car sales nearly halved. These are relatively unimportant markets, by now, tiny Luxemburg has more car sales than Greece. If Greece would leave the EU, it would not even register in the car statistics. What hurts much more is the deterioration of the volume markets. France is down 20.2 percent, not boding well for PSA and Renault. Italy is down 18.9 percent, putting pressure on Fiat. Flat sales in Germany spared Europe a double digit tanking.

Perhaps cars are being replaced in the U.S. simply because they are beginning to wear out. The average age of vehicles on the road in the United States reached a record 11.1 years in 2011.

With gas prices high and rising, and VMT dropping, it’s hard to construct a scenario in which U.S. auto sales continue to increase.

The Census Bureau reports the number of light vehicles registered in the U.S. peaked in 2008 at 247,322,000 million. In 2009 (the latest date for which Census Bureau data is available), registrations declined to 243,999,000. However, the U.S. Department of Energy Center for Transportation Analysis reports the number of light vehicles in the U.S. dropped to 235,034,000 in 2010. Over the two years (2009 – 2010) since the peak in vehicles on U.S. roads for which we have data, new light vehicle sales totaled 22.4 million (10.6 million in 2009, 11.8 million in 2010) while the number of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads declined by 12.3 million. 34.7 million light vehicles were scrapped and disappeared from the vehicle registration rolls over those two years – 17.35 million a year. No wonder gas consumption and VMT are down.

It would seem a safe bet that unless U.S. auto sales return to the record high levels of the early 2000s, cars and light trucks will continue to disappear from U.S. roads and streets. The days of ever-expanding road capacity are over. Or at least they should be. We should be asking ourselves: is there really any need for the Columbia River Crossing? Or is the CRC a multi-billion dollar boondoggle, a bridge to nowhere?

It’s not just deliveries of petroleum products that are down. Gasoline deliveries are down, too – to levels last seen in early 2002.

Calculated Risk reports U.S. light vehicle sales were estimated at a 15.1 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in February, up 14.1% from February 2011 and 6.9% from the sales rate of 14.13 million SAAR in January 2012. (Note: delivery from the factory to a dealer, not the sale by a dealer to a retail customer,  is counted as a “sale”.) The annualized sales rate is up sharply over the last two months, and this is the highest sales rate since February 2008. Calculated Risk posts this chart showing light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Light vehicle sales are up sharply from their post-financial crisis lows, but remain well off peak sales levels or even average sales levels of the last decade.

An increase in light vehicle sales at the same time fuel sales are plummeting seems anomalous. Why would people be buying cars again even as driving is dropping?

The reason? Global crude use is soaring, while the most important oil wells on earth are rapidly depleting. We basically stopped finding conventional super-giant, high production rate oil fields forty years ago. Oil production has remained stubbornly flat regardless of price, as shown in this chart posted by Gail Tverberg at Our Finite World.

The oil supply shown above is “all liquids,” which includes unconventional sources including biofuels, extra heavy oil, tar sands, and natural gas liquids, as seen in this chart posted by Stuart Staniford at Early Warning.

“Crude plus condensate” on the right hand scale, other components of the liquid fuel stream on the left-hand scale.

Staniford notes that during the C&C plateau period since 2005, about 1 mpd in additional total supply has come from a long standing trend in the increase in natural gas liquids (NGPL), while another 1 mpd has come from “other liquids” (mainly biofuels).

These “other liquids” are not the same as crude oil. Natural gas liquids are not oil, and they contain only 65% of the BTU of oil. Biofuels are much worse. They are, at best, barely an energy source: rather, they are the product of a conversion process of other energy inputs. Taking into account energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) – the amount of energy required to extract, process, and deliver oil, natural gas liquids, unconventional oils, and biofuels – the world’s energy situation is much more dire than apparent from the gross “all liquids” production numbers. Even if “all liquids” production has still been rising – barely – the same can’t be said for net energy from liquid fuels.

High prices for crude means high prices for gasoline. Oil prices in 2011 averaged record highs, and 2012 isn’t looking to be any better as gasoline prices in the U.S. have never been higher this time of the year and are continuing to rise. No matter how much we might like to believe there’s a “solution” to high gasoline prices, there is very little government policies can do to deal with increasing demand for oil from Asia, or depleting oil reserves, or intractable conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.

Why do I bother to talk about oil supplies, when people say they much prefer to read about farm life: the ducks, the sheep, and the garden? It’s because the reality of peak oil is the driver behind this kind of life we have chosen to live, the main driver of the decisions we make. Peak oil means the end to the growth paradigm. However haltingly, we’re struggling to come to grips with this reality in our daily life.

Over a decade ago we began to think about disengaging from an oil-dependent lifestyle. We’re far from independent of oil, but we realize oil represents the past, not the future. So it seems silly to invest in new vehicles. For farm chores, our pre-WWII tractor will probably still be running even after the oil runs out.

1939 Ford 9N

We keep repairing our ’80s-vintage cars and ’70s vintage farm truck rather than replacing them. We drive as little as possible, fondly remembering the days we lived in the south of France where we get around almost entirely by foot and pedal power. Life has never been more glorious.

Sallèles d’Aude, “our” village in the south of France, by the Canal du Jonction

Sallèles d’Aude, street scene with pickup

We don’t take on debt, as haven’t now and don’t expect in the future to have any income to pay it back. We grow as much of our own food as we can, and as much as possible turn to neighbors for what we don’t or can’t. We rely on our own woodlot for heat.

We seem to not be alone in dis-investing in the automobile culture. Jazzbumpa at Angry Bear points to Department of Energy data showing vehicle ownership in the U.S., measured as vehicles (both cars and trucks) per 1000 population, peaked in 2007 at 843.57. It dropped by 1.88% to 828.04 in 2009. Nationmaster.com shows that the “most recent” value for the U.S. is 765 (though it’s not clear what “most recent” means). If this is accurate (which Jazzbumpa questions), then vehicle ownership has fallen off a cliff and is back to 1994 levels.¹ It is pretty clear that automobile ownership in the U.S. has peaked for good and is now going down rather than up.

Driving is down, too – both vehicle miles traveled and total miles driven. The Federal Highway Administration reports that last year, U.S. drivers logged 35.7 billion fewer miles than in 2010 — down 1.2%— to 2.963 trillion miles. That’s the fewest number of miles since Americans drove 2.890 trillion miles in 2003.

A drop in both vehicle ownership and vehicle miles traveled are indicators of a change in the way people are choosing to live in this world. Don’t be surprised when other indicators begin blinking, too. In our lifetime, we’ve come to expect to see GDP and other economic metrics always going up – after all, growth is normal, isn’t it? Perhaps growth will prove to not be normal, after all – and sooner than anyone thinks.

¹ The Census Bureau estimates the population of the U.S. as of January 2012 at about 312,780,000. The DOE’s Transportation Energy Data Books pegs the U.S. light vehicle fleet at 234,880,00 as of June 2011. Using those numbers results in a vehicle ownership rate of 751. A vehicle ownership rate of 765 may be too high, not too low.

In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 49 months – more than 4 years – and the trend shows no sign of being reversed any time soon as VMT remains way below the previous peak.

In Oregon, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was down 0.1% in December 2011 compared to December 2010. Cumulative VMT for 2011 was down 1.8% from 2010. VMT in Oregon was down every month in 2011 compared to 2010.

Gas prices are a big part of the story. Oil prices in 2011 averaged record highs. Gasoline prices followed, never dipping below $3/gallon – as seen in this chart from Gas Buddy.

2012 doesn’t look to be any better. Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year in the U.S. At $3.53 a gallon, prices are up 25 cents since Jan. 1 as crude oil prices have advanced to a nine-month high. Analysts are forecasting prices could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April. Gas prices typically rise in March and April, as demand increases as driving increases. In addition, summertime gasoline is more expensive to make. And there’s a wild card: energy analysts warn the risks to global oil supplies are greater than at any time in the past 30 years.

What passes for political “discourse” over stubbornly high gas prices will not even hint at the actual causes – the plateauing of global crude oil production since 2005.  High gas prices despite economic weakness in the developed countries vindicates those in the peak oil community who’ve been predicting for a number of years that once production plateaued, whenever the economy starts to improve oil prices will tend to increase and begin to choke off any “recovery”. But don’t expect any politician to acknowledge the new reality – at least not in public. To do so would be political death.

In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 48 months – a full 4 years – and the trend shows no sign of reversing any time soon.

Could it be that the all-time peak in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S. – August 2007 – is now securely behind us?

In Oregon, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was down 0.4% in November 2011 compared to November 2010. Cumulative VMT for 2011 is down 2.0% from 2010. VMT in Oregon has been down every month in 2011 compared to 2010.

With VMT down, it’s not surprising that Americans continue to consume less gasoline. Total petroleum deliveries fell 1.1% in November compared with November a year ago, pulled down by a 1.8 percent decline in motor gasoline demand.  It was the lowest level of November consumption for gasoline since 2000.

Total petroleum deliveries fell 1.2% to an average of 18.9 million barrels a day in 2011 compared with 2010. Except for 2008, this was the largest drop in annual domestic deliveries over the past decade.

If petroleum deliveries are any indicator, VMT will prove to continue to drop in December 2011 – and substantially. December 2011 petroleum deliveries were down 5.9% from December 2010, declining to an average of 18.6 million barrels per day, the lowest level in 15 years. The Federal Highway Administration’s report for December can be expected confirm that VMT for 2011 as a whole is down over 2010.

Brent crude, the world oil benchmark, averaged $111 per barrel, breaking the previous record of an annual average high of $100 set in 2008. That spike contributed to a huge global recession. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose even more, averaging $95/barrel, an increase by 20% over its 2010 average price of $79. WTI traded at a hefty discount to world oil prices throughout the year – as much as $26/ barrel.

Global automotive market intelligence firm Polk forecasts worldwide new vehicle sales in 2012 will rise 6.7% over 2011 volumes  to 77.7 million vehicles. Polk expects China to make the largest contribution to global sales growth for new vehicles, with an anticipated 16% increase over 2011.

Polk expects that U.S. light vehicle sales will increase by 7.3% to 13.7 million vehicles. As this chart by Calculated Risk shows, sales are struggling to return to levels reached almost two decades ago, when the U.S. population was ~50 million less than today.

Polk is optimistically forecasting U.S. auto sales to return to “normal” levels of greater than 16 million vehicles per year by 2015 – and for global auto sales to approach 100 million by 2016.

Where is the gasoline to power all these new cars going to come from? Despite record high global oil prices, global oil production is refusing to budge. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – which supply ~42% of global production – produced an average of 30.74 million barrels per day in December 2011.  OPEC production has been fluctuating within a ~5% band, as has global production.

Production of crude plus condensate has been basically flat since 2005, with new sources just barely managing to compensate for a 5% decline per year from existing production. Any increase in total liquids over that time has largely come from increases in NGPLs and other liquids.

Total liquids production worldwide increased 0.5% per year from 2005 to 2010 – but that includes low net energy fuels such as biofuels. However, the global supply of net oil exports available to importers other than China and India (what Jeffrey Brown calls Available Net Exports, or ANE) fell at a rate of 2.8% per year from 2005 to 2010. Brown expects oil available for import by most of the world to fall by 5% – 8% each year for the rest of the decade.

In Saudi Arabia (now the world’s second largest oil producer after Russia), production has been declining.  Only a dozen or so of the 54 oil producing nations in the world are still increasing their oil production.

If global economic growth, feeble though it may be, manages to continue in 2012, we can expect even higher oil prices. Even if people are willing and able to pay higher prices, there are limits to global supplies of oil that can be refined into motor fuels. What good will all these new cars be, if there is not enough fuel to power them?

It’s a good bet that rosy forecasts for U.S. and global auto sales will prove to be powered by nothing more than fantasy.