A new worldwide analysis of agricultural trends just published in the journal Science blames our warming global climate for a 3-5% decline in corn and wheat production during the last 30 years, to such an extent that it may be a factor in rising food prices that are now causing worldwide stress. The study is the first to demonstrate a link between global crop yields and climate change.

Corn yields were 5.5% lower than they would have been if the environmental factors remained constant, and wheat yields were 3.8% lower. Wheat production in Russia showed the biggest drop, with yields off by 15%. Soybeans and rice were relatively unaffected, due respectively to being grown in areas not experiencing as much warming and thriving in higher temperatures. The United States has been lucky so far: temperatures in the midwestern corn and soybean belt during the summer crop-growing season have not yet shown an increase.

John Cox at Discovery News has posted a map from the study showing global temperature and precipitation changes.

The authors of the study — David Lobell and Justin Costa-Roberts of Stanford University, and Wolfram Schlenker of Columbia University — warn that as temperature increases accelerate in coming decades, the negative impacts on food production will also increase.

Eating locally can do a lot to cut down on energy usage in the food system. But not for the obvious reason – savings on transportation energy. Rather, it’s mostly because you’d be eating real food. That’s the lesson to be gleaned from the report Energy Use in the US Food System, published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Energy is used throughout the U.S. food supply chain, which is divvied up into seven stages:  farm production and agribusiness (agriculture), food processing and brand marketing (processing), food and ingredient packaging (packaging), freight services (transportation), wholesale and retail trade and marketing services (wholesale/retail), away-from-home food and marketing services (food service), and household food services (households).

The processing stage seems to be where most of the low-hanging energy-saving fruit is to be found. Michael Bomford in an article titled Beyond Food Miles at Post Carbon Institute explains:

Buying from the local farmers’ market offers great opportunities to cut down on food system energy use, but it’s not because the food there has traveled less than the food at the grocery store. It’s because the aisles of a typical grocery store are mostly filled with highly-processed and packaged food, while farmers markets offer mostly whole or minimally-processed foods.

The energy intensity of our food system keeps getting worse rather than better. During 1997-2002, per capita energy use in the United States declined 1.8%, while per capita food-related energy use in the United States actually increased by 16.4%. As a share of the national energy budget, food-related energy use grew from 12.2% in 1997 to 14.4% in 2002 and is still growing, from 14.4 percent in 2002 to an estimated 15.7% in 2007.

Transportation is a small fraction of the food system energy budget.

However, the energy intensity of food transportation in the U.S. food system is growing. Food shipments are increasing in volume, at the same time average shipping distances are increasing significantly. These food-mile increases translate into substantial growth in energy use by food-related freight services.

A big culprit in the increase in energy usage in the food system is replacing human labor with machines. About half of the growth in food-related energy use between 1997 and 2002 is explained by a shift from human labor toward a greater reliance on “energy services” across nearly all food expenditure categories. The report blames “high labor costs” in the food services and food processing industries, combined with household outsourcing of manual food preparation and cleanup efforts through increased consumption of prepared foods and more eating out. Replacing humans with machines is also responsible for the increasing energy intensity in the “agriculture” stage.

Household operations – which is defined to include energy use for major kitchen appliances, auto use for food-related trips, and related energy flows for home food preparation and serving equipment – account for the highest food-related energy use. But food processing shows the largest growth in energy use, as both households and foodservice establishments increasingly outsource manual food preparation and cleanup activities to the manufacturing sector, which rely on energy-using technologies to carry out these processes.

The obvious way to cut down on energy usage in the food system is to cut out as many of the intermediate stages between “agriculture” and “household” as possible: buy directly from the farmer, cutting out processing, packaging, transportation (remember, your trip to the farm is already included in “household”), wholesale/retail, and food service entirely, or at least as much as possible. If we want a more energy-efficient agriculture we will have to reverse the historical trend and begin to once again employ people rather than machines.

Michael Pollan sums up everything we need to know about food and health in seven words: “Eat food, not too much, mostly plants.”

“Eat food” means to eat real food – vegetables, fruits, whole grains, fish, and meat, too, as livestock are an essential component of an ecologically sustainable food system.  Eating food would not only be healthier for us. It’s the only means to a healthy economy and a healthy planet.

Are we seeing the beginnings of another global food crisis?  Consider:

• The United Nations says that the global price of food hit another new all-time high in the month of January and is projecting that the global price of food will increase by another 30 percent by the end of 2011.
• The price of wheat has roughly doubled since the middle of 2010. Unprecedented flooding in Australia has devastated the winter wheat crop. A severe and long-lasting drought in China is projected to have a huge impact on wheat production. Russia, one of the world’s largest wheat producers, is still reeling from the effects of last summer’s record high temperatures and is actually importing wheat this winter to sustain its cattle herds. Some of the worst flooding ever seen in Brazil has caused huge losses for agriculture in northeastern Brazil while at the same time drought and scorching temperatures are withering wheat, corn, and soybean crops in Argentina.
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects U.S. corn reserves will drop to a 15 year low by the end of 2011. The price of corn has already doubled in the past six months. Chinese imports of corn is now expected be about 9 times larger than originally projected for 2011.

One phenomenon underlies these disparate events: the extreme weather that is a predicted consequence of global warming. We are suffering the consequences of global warming right now, as manifested in rising food prices, food shortages, and political unrest.

While food prices are soaring around the globe, political unrest is rising as well. Here’s a catalog of recent events (hat tip to Jeff Rubin):

• Demonstrators force Mubarak out in Egypt. Egypt is the world’s largest importer. Egyptian food imports have been paid for by oil exports – but Egypt’s oil exports have been plunging since 1996. What’s hard to understand is why Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak would not want to take his purloined billions and flee while he can.
• Political unrest in Tunisia over high food prices in Tunisia recently sent strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali packing.
• Riots in Morocco, Algeria and Pakistan are related to the very sharp rise in food and commodity prices.
• Food riots in Algeria prompted three-term president Abdelaziz Bouteflika to lift a 19-year stage of emergency and to quickly place an order for a record 800,000 tonnes of wheat.
• Saudi Arabia, taking preemptive action, recently announced plans to double its wheat inventories.
• Bangladesh and Indonesia placed record rice orders; the former doubling its order, while Jakarta quadrupled its rice purchases.
• In Bolivia, President Evo Morales has been rattled by protests after trying to lift subsidies on gasoline, flour and sugar in December. He subsequently abandoned the effort — but did remove price controls on sugar, causing prices to double.

China may soon be putting additional pressure on global food supplies and prices. The severe drought in the north could result in China, normally self–sufficient in wheat, to become a significant importer this year, an eventuality that would push grain prices a lot higher.

Bill James at Seeking Alpha predicts that Mexico will follow Egypt into collapse within two years, due to the same interplay between rising food prices and falling oil exports:

• Mexicans spend about 22% of their disposable income on food. In 2010 corn prices increased 52% and wheat 47%. With the floods in Australia, ethanol in the U.S. and higher fuel prices it seems likely food will consume 50% of disposable income within a year. That is an average. There will be a critical percent of the population where food costs will exceed their disposable income. Hunger will amplify risks.
• Mexico’s government gets about 40% of its revenues from oil. As noted in BP data complied at Energy Export Database Mexico’s domestic consumption (black line) will force its oil revenues (green area) to drop to zero within a few years. Egypt’s oil revenues dropped to about zero in 2010.

James illustrates his argument with two charts.

Without the ability to feed its people or fund its security forces, how can Mexico remain a viable government?

The question begs to be answered more broadly: without the ability to feed their people or fund their security forces, how can many of the struggling nations of the world retain viable governments? Rising food prices will make this question more and more salient.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reports the price of food is at an all-time high. Stuart Staniford at Early Warning has posted this chart showing the Food Price Index. The December 2010 reading is just above the peak of the 2007-2008 food crisis – which sparked food riots around the world.

The FAO’s website explains how the index is compiled.

The index appears poised to climb even higher, due to factors including oil prices that are rising once again and extreme weather events such as fires and poor harvests last summer in Russia, drought in Argentina, flooding in Pakistan, and heat waves and flooding in Australia. Increases in global population and economic growth in China and other developing countries have left so little slack in the global food system that even a little bit of bad weather can result in big commodity price moves.

Last week NASA reported that 2010 through September has been the hottest year on record.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunder Blog, 18 nations have recorded a hottest all-time temperature this year, which is a new record. The year 2007 is in second place, with 15 such records. No nations have recorded an all-time coldest temperature so far this year.

Egypt did not make the list of countries setting new record highs. Nevertheless, according to Mohamed Eissa, chairman of the Egyptian Meteorological Authority:

This year, Egypt had its hottest summer in years.

One result: rising food prices.

A recent report by the Agricultural Research Centre (ARC) cited in the local media said crop productivity had dropped by almost 70 percent this year due to rising temperatures. The report – sent to the Agriculture Minister Amin Abaza – said most crops could not tolerate such a sharp increase.

Egypt wasn’t alone in experiencing crop losses. Extreme heat in Russia this summer caused a spike in grain prices due to drought-induced decrease in grain production. The heat also contributed to a decrease in potato and vegetable crops, productivity of livestock and poultry, increased storing expenses for wholesalers and retailers, increased losses in handling and delivery of perishable products, and overall higher levels of food loss.

A new study published in Environmental Research Letters concludes that climate change will see large-scale crop failures like the one that caused the recent Russian wheat crisis becoming more common due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Some areas of the world are becoming hotter and drier, even as more intense monsoon rains increase the risk of flooding and crop damage.

The study is titled Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China.

Another new study titled Drought under global warming: a review warns global warming will lead to multiple, devastating global droughts. This graphic from the study shows increasing severity of drought as the century progresses:

Study author Aiguo Dai emphasizes that quantitative interpretation of the PDSI values shown above requires caution because many of the PDSI values, which are calibrated to the 1950–1979 model climate, are well out of the range for the current climate, based on which the PDSI was designed. Nevertheless, the graphic above, together with all the other studies cited in the study, suggests that drought may become so widespread and so severe in the coming decades that current drought indices may no longer work properly in quantifying future drought.

Now here’s a surprise. From Science Daily:

Side-by-side comparisons of organic and conventional strawberry farms and their fruit found the organic farms produced more flavorful and nutritious berries while leaving the soil healthier and more genetically diverse.

The paper, titled Fruit and Soil Quality of Organic and Conventional Strawberry Agroecosystems, is published in the peer-reviewed online journal, PLoS ONE.

All the farms in the current study were in California, where conventional farms use the ozone-depleting methyl bromide (which is slated to be replaced by the highly toxic methyl iodide).

In addition to finding organic strawberries are tastier and better for your health, researchers found the organic soils excelled in a variety of key chemical and biological properties, including carbon sequestration, nitrogen, microbial biomass, enzyme activities, and micronutrients.

The Science Daily article quotes lead author John Reganold, Washington State University Regents professor of soil science:

Our findings have global implications and advance what we know about the sustainability benefits of organic farming systems. We also show you can have high quality, healthy produce without resorting to an arsenal of pesticides.

The authors offer a summation of the study’s methodology, findings, conclusions and significance:

At multiple sampling times for two years, we evaluated three varieties of strawberries for mineral elements, shelf life, phytochemical composition, and organoleptic properties. We also analyzed traditional soil properties and soil DNA using microarray technology. We found that the organic farms had strawberries with longer shelf life, greater dry matter, and higher antioxidant activity and concentrations of ascorbic acid and phenolic compounds, but lower concentrations of phosphorus and potassium. In one variety, sensory panels judged organic strawberries to be sweeter and have better flavor, overall acceptance, and appearance than their conventional counterparts. We also found the organically farmed soils to have more total carbon and nitrogen, greater microbial biomass and activity, and higher concentrations of micronutrients. Organically farmed soils also exhibited greater numbers of endemic genes and greater functional gene abundance and diversity for several biogeochemical processes, such as nitrogen fixation and pesticide degradation.

Our findings show that the organic strawberry farms produced higher quality fruit and that their higher quality soils may have greater microbial functional capability and resilience to stress. These findings justify additional investigations aimed at detecting and quantifying such effects and their interactions.

Battered by record heat and a drought that has destroyed millions of hectares of crops, Russia – the world’s third largest wheat exporter – has banned grain exports.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced:

In connection with the unusually high temperatures and the drought, I consider it right to impose a temporary ban on the export from Russia of grain and other products produced from grain.

Putin said Russia’s policy after December 31 would be determined by the results of the harvest. Russia has slashed its 2010 grain harvest forecast to 70-75 million tonnes, compared with a harvest of 97 million tonnes in 2009.

The record heat and drought have spawned widespread wildfires. Peat bog fires outside Moscow have shrouded the capital in smog. Wheat prices have soared as Russia sizzles.

Jeff Masters at Wunder Blog reports the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, which is just over ten million; and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred just seven years ago in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 – 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy.

A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Masters observes this is the worst heat wave in Russian history:

Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow’s history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia’s weather service, said in a statement today, “Our ancestors haven’t observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique.”

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says its time to face up to the reality of climate change:

None of us can say what the next summer will be like. The forecasts vary greatly. Everyone is talking about climate change now. Unfortunately, what is happening now in our central regions is evidence of this global climate change, because we have never in our history faced such weather conditions in the past. This means that we need to change the way we work, change the methods that we used in the past.”

Fat chance of that happening, here. No matter what the evidence, it’s business as usual, pursue growth at any cost, and let the future take care of itself.

Update: Peak Oil News has posted this great graphic showing the distribution of fires:

Scientists are saying the record heat wave in Russia and the deadly heat and flooding in Asia may become the norm rather than the exception. The Peak Oil News piece quotes Professor Michael Mann, a noted paleo-climatologist researcher:

The record heat waves we’re seeing this summer aren’t simply a random event in isolation. They are embedded in the warmest 6 month period the globe has seen in the instrumental record spanning the past 150 years. And a wealth of paleoclimate evidence suggests that the past few decades are the warmest period in at least a thousand years, and perhaps much longer.

The mobile slaughterhouse could play a critical role in the burgeoning local food movement. This photo of a “slaughtermobile” is from an article in the Washington Post. The article reports the USDA is paying more attention to small and mid-size farms, encouraging organic and sustainable agriculture, and investing in projects to bring locally grown meat and produce to consumers.

A mobile slaughterhouse, with a team composed of a butcher and a federal meat inspector, travels from farm to farm.

USDA’s efforts to help small farmers are focused within its “Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food” program, which seeks to help make the link between local production and local consumption.

USDA has published a Mobile Slaughter Unit Compliance Guide to help those who want to establish a mobile slaughter unit under Federal inspection and operate in accordance with Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) regulations.

The Land Institute near Salina, Kansas has been crossing selected strains of wild intermediate wheatgrass grain with annual wheat varieties to breed a commercially practical perennial grain. Gene Logsdon at OrganicToBe.org reports that pancakes made with flour (trademarked Kernza ™) from the resulting grain is pretty tasty.

The flour makes a light dough and the pancakes taste just a tad sweeter than ordinary wheat flour.  * * * It is exceptionally high in some nutrients known to be important to human health and deficient in many modern diets: Omega 3 fatty acids, calcium, lutein, and betaine. It is particularly high in folate, important for preventing stroke, cancer, heart disease and infertility. Folate is also believed to be important for maintaining good mental health in old age.  My mind generally glazes over when reading about nutrient values of various foods so that folate might come in handy. To me the important thing is that for once something that is good for me tastes good too. Kernza ™ does not have enough gluten in it to use alone for leavened breads, but as more and more crosses are made with it and regular wheat, all things are possible.

Being able to grow grain without plowing up millions of acres of soil every year would cut down on erosion and help build soil tilth while enabling farmers to cut way back on fuel and greenhouse gas emissions – saving farmers both time and money in the bargain.

But the search won’t be over until researchers come up with a good perennial bread flour.

Shirin Wertime has a must-read article at Culture Change that poses the question: what will happen to our food system as fossil fuels become increasingly scarce and expensive? The following is my summary of some of the highlights.

Today’s agri-food systems are almost entirely dependent on fossil fuel energy for everything from food production to transportation to food preparation and storage. The structure of agriculture production, aided and abetted by government policies, has spurred the expansion of farm specialization and consolidation, monocultures, the delocalization of agricultural production, and the adoption of industrial farming practices. The increase in globalized food production, which has come at the expense of local production, is sustainable only as long as cheap energy supplies can subsidize the transportation of goods across long distances. It will take deep-rooted structural and institutional changes as well as lifestyle changes on the part of individuals, their governments, and societies to transition to a more sustainable, non-petroleum based food system which oil depletion and rising costs will inexorably force on us.

Farming itself has become the least profitable and least energy intensive segment of the entire economy of agriculture. Only one-fifth of the energy that goes into our mouths is actually used for growing food. The rest goes to transport, processing, packaging, marketing, and food preparation and storage. Farmers end up with only 10% of the total food dollar, while 25% pays for farm inputs and 65% goes for transportation, processing and marketing. A century ago, farmers ended up with closer to 40% of the food dollar and most farm inputs were produced by the farmers themselves by using draft animal power, storing seeds, and using animal manure for fertilizer.

As oil declines, industrial agriculture in its current form will become impossible. It will prove increasingly difficult to feed the world with diminishing fertile land and water resources. The current structure of power relations and resource control in the United States prevents the widespread move away from fossil fuel based agriculture and transition to localized, sustainable agriculture. Without a change in the status quo, small local and sustainable producers cannot compete against fossil fuel subsidized agribusiness. But the reality is that the present agricultural system cannot be maintained for much longer. Decreasing oil production and rising oil prices will effectively bankrupt the American agri-food system. Without petroleum and all of its benefits, there will be little choice but to revert to a system of local, organic production and consumption.

Peak oil will turn our entire world upside down. There will be a return to localized, small-scale photosynthesis-based, appropriate-tech agricultural production and an end to the domination of economic and power structures that place profit above all else.

Now, I can buy all of this except the last part of the last sentence. I’ll believe in the end of avarice only when I see it.