U.S. driving down in 2011, gas prices higher in 2012
February 20th, 2012The Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Volume Trends reports travel on U.S. roads and streets was up 1.3% for December 2011 as compared with December 2010. Cumulative travel for 2011 was down 1.2% from 2010.
In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 49 months – more than 4 years – and the trend shows no sign of being reversed any time soon as VMT remains way below the previous peak.
In Oregon, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was down 0.1% in December 2011 compared to December 2010. Cumulative VMT for 2011 was down 1.8% from 2010. VMT in Oregon was down every month in 2011 compared to 2010.
Gas prices are a big part of the story. Oil prices in 2011 averaged record highs. Gasoline prices followed, never dipping below $3/gallon – as seen in this chart from Gas Buddy.
2012 doesn’t look to be any better. Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year in the U.S. At $3.53 a gallon, prices are up 25 cents since Jan. 1 as crude oil prices have advanced to a nine-month high. Analysts are forecasting prices could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April. Gas prices typically rise in March and April, as demand increases as driving increases. In addition, summertime gasoline is more expensive to make. And there’s a wild card: energy analysts warn the risks to global oil supplies are greater than at any time in the past 30 years.
What passes for political “discourse” over stubbornly high gas prices will not even hint at the actual causes – the plateauing of global crude oil production since 2005. High gas prices despite economic weakness in the developed countries vindicates those in the peak oil community who’ve been predicting for a number of years that once production plateaued, whenever the economy starts to improve oil prices will tend to increase and begin to choke off any “recovery”. But don’t expect any politician to acknowledge the new reality – at least not in public. To do so would be political death.