Trend in VMT still down in U.S., Oregon
October 26th, 2011The Federal Highway Administration reports travel on U.S. roads and streets was down 1.7% for August 2011 as compared with August 2010. Cumulative travel for 2011 was down 1.3% from 2010.
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk posts this chart.
McBride observes the downward trend in VMT is unprecedented:
In the early ’80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months.
Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 45 months – so this is a new record for longest period below the previous peak – and still counting!
In Oregon, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was down 1.0% in August from August 2010. Cumulative VMT is now down 2.2% from 2010.
There are some indications that travel may have picked up a bit in September. After falling a revised 0.5% in August 2011, the American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.6% in September.
However, the long-term trend in truck tonnage remains down from peak 2005 levels.
Also, the American Petroleum Institute reports total petroleum deliveries (a measure of demand) totaled 19.9 million bpd, an increase of 2.5% in September over September 2010. While motor gasoline demand was up only slightly by 0.3%, distillate demand reached a record for the month. On a year-to-date basis, gasoline demand was down 1.3% from 2010.