Scientists have pointed out that if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO₂ will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. To be safe, we’ll likely have to get back to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm, and rather quickly.

So, are emissions beginning to fall back towards 350 ppm? See for yourself.

Craig Scott Goldsmith, author of the new book “Uninhabitable: a case for caution” points out we’re already well past the climate change tipping point. Throw methane and nitrous oxide emissions into the equation and we are already at 433 (ppm) CO2 equivalent. We’re adding 2 (ppm) of C02 per year and 1 part methane and nitrous oxide every year. At that rate we will pass a potential tipping point of 440 (ppm) CO2 equivalent within 2.5 yrs or in 2012. 440 (ppm) to 550 (ppm) is the range that the IPCC – by nature a most conservative scientific consensus – has warned could trigger a positive feed back loop, where warming initiates more warming or runaway global warming. Methane is the time bomb. Already, humans have initiated the 6th major extinction event in earth’s long history.

Are we beginning to back away from the tipping point? Far from it – we seem to be speeding up, oblivious to the danger.

For example: auto sales in China are exploding. March 2010 sales were up 56% over March 2009 levels, boosted by government stimulus measures launched to boost domestic consumption. Auto sales in China are now on pace to exceed an astounding 18 million vehicles per year, blowing past the peak in U.S. sales of 17.4 million in 2000. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to reach a record high level in 2010, as the world economy recovers and developing nations’ demand for oil grows to new heights.  IEA forecasts that average annual world oil demand will have rebounded 2% from 84.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2009 to 86.6 mb/d in 2010.

The next decade will see at least 1000 new coal fire burning plants, over one per week in China alone, adding to the world’s present stock of over 50,000 coal-fired power plants. The new coal plants already in the pipeline will by themselves boost world CO2 emissions by 14% in a mere 8 years. Building coal plants locks in emissions for decades to come, as coal plants have a life expectancy of up to 75 years or even more.

And then there’s economics. The primary objective of politicians around the globe is to return national and global economies to a path of robust growth. The “Great Recession” is a result of greatly expanded debt, and has been countered by governments assuming private debt and running up even more sovereign debt. As this post at Angry Bear inadvertently explains, the only way to service that debt going forward is “to grow adequately”. Unfortunately, the history of the industrial age has demonstrated that growth is dependent on the digging up of ancient carbon deposits and burning them for energy, re-injecting the C02 and other green house gasses like methane and nitrous oxide back up into our atmosphere.

Here’s the bottom line: there’s no way to tackle global warming and avert climate catastrophe without stepping off the growth treadmill.