Top oil producing states warn production decline steeper than expected
September 2nd, 2009Nawar Alsaadi at Seeking Alpha notes three of the world top oil exporters have recently warned that their oil production will be declining faster than expected.
First, Russia:
Russia’s oil production will decline year-on-year in the next two years, as the current oil fields will dry out and opportunities at the new fields will be limited, the country’s Finance?Ministry said Thursday [August 19] . . .
The forecast decline, while consistent with many independent outlooks, is a sharp change from the ministry’s previous estimate, which saw a steady rise in production in all three years.
Then there’s Mexico:
Mexican authorities said they expect average daily crude output to fall in 2010 to 2.5 million barrels per day, which would represent a four percent drop compared with the first half of this year and a decline of 14 percent since 2008.
Both officials said the decline was due primarily to the steady depletion of the offshore Cantarell field, once Mexico’s largest.
Production at Cantarell has crashed since peaking at 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003. By July 2009, production has fallen to only a little over 1/4 of peak – 588 kb/day, and seems to be dropping a steady 35 kb/day a month in production.
And Norway:
A Norwegian Petroleum Directorate report said Tuesday that oil production is expected to average 1.91 million barrels per day this year, and dwindle to 1.62 million barrels per day in 2013, a 10 percent larger decline than projected last year.
Production was about 2.2 million barrels per day at the end of 2008, after falling from a peak average of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2000.
The CIA 2009 World Factbook lists Russia as the world’s top producer. Mexico is #6 (down from #5 in 2005), and Norway is #12. Caution: the CIA’s data is all dated either 2007 or 2008, and is qualified as “estimates.”
The day Saudi Arabia warns production is declining will be the day the world changes forever.