Cap and trade charade
May 15th, 2009The Waxman-Markey cap and trade legislation is now in the headlines. The very possibility that the U.S. might actually do something, anything, to address climate change seems to mark a game-changing breakthrough.
But consider: the whole point of cap and trade is to create the appearance of acting responsibly while actually doing next to nothing.
Cap and trade – or carbon tax schemes – are just a complicated effort to maintain the status quo. Policymakers never consider that there might be limits to producing hydrocarbons.
industrial civilization is the principal driver of global climate. The consensus view – espoused, for example, by Joseph Romm – promises a transition to a carbon free industrial civilization, without significant disruptions. This position, in a large leap of faith, assumes that we will solve the problem of the development of large quantities of usable energy from constantly renewable sources, quickly. But suppose this doesn’t happen – what then?
JOthers, including James Hansen, argue for voluntarily slashing emissions. But achieving a 350 ppm target on a timescale of decades lies entirely outside the realm of what is politically possible.
But as David Cohen argues in The Reign of Error, depletion means an involuntary disruption is coming and there’s not much we can do about it outside of adjusting to a lower-energy lifestyle.
Cohen notes the indisputable: taking depletion seriously will never be a popular stance regardless of its validity.
The depletion story does not make impossible demands on Human Nature—no 1677 gigawatts of concentrated solar thermal, no burning of billions of trees required. The depletion story takes a realistic view of technology—no dependence on non-existent but essential breakthroughs. The depletion story takes exponential curves seriously—no unlimited growth on a finite planet. So you’ve got to wonder sometimes: who is delusional and who is not?
I do not pretend that the consensus view will change any time soon. I expect the bizarre climate debate to continue in its present form for some time to come. When Cap & Trade is not enacted, we will hear a lot of moaning and groaning. Then it will be back to business as usual in the climate world, which like the funeral business with Baby Boomers retiring, promises to be a growth industry.