Last August, Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition formally asked the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) to adopt a new statewide planning goal on climate change – sea level rise. The commission held a public hearing on that request at its meeting on Thursday.

The hearing on the Goal request was preceded by an informational briefing on climate change impacts (the staff report and other documents are available here). Agency experts and the Oregon Global Warming Commission  painted a picture of more frequent and intense storm events, more frequent and intense forest fires, less water during dry months – all of which will impact fish and wildlife, vegetation, and agriculture. Along the coast, rising sea levels will erode beaches and bluffs and drown coastal wetlands, threatening ecosystems and property owners alike. Coastal towns will be threatened with flooding, with damage to roads, buildings, bridges, and water and sewer systems. ODOT, unsurprisingly, weighed in that the proposed goal might prevent it from armoring its coastal roads and bridges.

The overall message conveyed was that even if efforts to slow and then halt greenhouse gas emissions are ultimately successful, climate change from global warming is already built into Earth’s climate system – it’s too late to avoid impacts. We’re going to have to adapt, no matter what we do to mitigate.

Global Warming Commission chair Angus Duncan and member Eric Lemelson wrapped up the briefing. They complained that the Global Warming Commission’s recommendations had been ignored by the Big Look Task Force. They said that if we’re to meet our carbon emissions goals, we’re going to have to change our development patterns to minimize greenhouse gas emissions – and we’re going to have to prepare for the inevitable impacts of climate change, as well. They urged LCDC to make climate change a core part of Oregon’s planning program.

Following the background briefing, Oregon Shores made its pitch for a new climate change goal. The presenting panel included Steve Schell and Ann Squier, who were members of LCDC in its first years. The panel members urged the present Commission to be as bold in confronting today’s new challenges as the original Commission was in drafting and adopting the goals initially, over 30 years ago.

The new Goal 20 as drafted by Oregon Shores would require the mapping and periodic remapping of the 100-year storm surge line as affected by rising sea levels. Development within the mapped future hazard area would be limited, and government support or expenditures – direct or indirect – for structures, infrastructure or public facilities within the 100-year storm surge. As an interim “safe harbor”, the new Goal would establish a standard for sea level rise of 1.94 feet by 2100, based on the conservative projection found in the 2007 IPCC report (which, as the Goal 20 proponents point out, does not take into account the dynamics of glacier and ice sheet flows).

What was surprising about the discussion that followed Oregon Shore’s presentation is the consensus among commission members that climate change needs to be addressed. The main shortcoming they saw in the Oregon Shores proposal was that its application is limited to the coast, while climate change mitigation is required statewide and climate change impacts will be felt statewide. The questions the Commission wrestled with were, how ambitious to be, and what could LCDC practically undertake given fiscal constraints?  DLCD director Richard Whitman estimated the goal adoption process, which requires a minimum of 10 public hearings throughout the state, could cost around $500,000 – and this at a time when the general fund is looking to be slashed by 20%.

The commission – at least for the moment – rejected the action recommended by DLCD staff, which was to deny Oregon Shores’ petition and instead address climate change within the existing framework of goals and rules (the staff report and other documents are available here). Commissioner Marilyn Warrix said she was convinced that LCDC needs to act forcefully to address climate change, but lamented the absence of direction from the Governor’s office. Commissioner Tim Josi – who is also a Tillamook County Commissioner – concurred that he was convinced of the need for action, but pointed to the marine reserve fiasco and warned of property owner revolt over development restrictions if the process didn’t result in buy-in.

At the end of the day it was the sense of the commission that (in the words of Josi) this is “too important to screw up” – but, as Chair VanLandingham said, “We have to think about this.” The Commission voted to defer any decision and directed Director Whitman to come back at its July meeting with a “decision tree” of options for the Commission to consider.

What has Oregon Shores accomplished? While LCDC has not (at least for the moment) initiated a Climate Change goal, they did spend an entire day thinking about the role land use plays in both causing climate change and in adapting to it. They get how important climate change is. They get it that business as usual is not an option – climate change cannot be ignored. Oregon Shores has succeeded in getting LCDC thinking about it – that’s a remarkable achievement. Now’s the time to keep the pressure on, to make sure the Commission follows through with action.