Climate change in the Rogue: we’ve already screwed the pooch
December 23rd, 2008Climate change is likely to produce significant new stresses and alterations to water quantity and quality, fish, wildlife, plant life, forests and fire regimes of the Rogue Basin.
So say the scientists who wrote Preparing For Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon. The researce team included Bob Doppelt and Roger Hamilton from the University of Oregon Climate Leadership Initiative, Cindy Deacon Williams from the National Center for Conservation Science & Policy, and Marni Koopman from the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station.
The team downscaled three climate models (CSIRO, MIROC, and Hadley) and incorporated a global vegetation change model (MC1) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They then assessed the likely risks posed by changing climate conditions to natural systems. Finally, they made recommendations for increasing the capacity of ecosystems and species to withstand and adapt to those stressors.
Expected impacts within the Rogue Basin include:
- An increase in annual average temperatures from 1 to 3° F (0.5 to 1.6° C) by around 2040 and 4 to 8° by around 2080, with summer temperatures increasing dramatically by up to 15° (8.3° C).
- Snowpack reduced 75% from the baseline by 2040, and another 75% from 2040 to an insignificant amount by 2080.
- Both deeper drought and more extensive flooding.
- Significantly more wildfire due to reduced snowpack and soil moisture, hotter temperatures, and longer fire seasons.
- Increased vulnerability of aquatic and terrestrial species.
- Increased disruption and direct damage to energy infrastructure, transportation systems, buildings, and real estate.
- Tougher times for agriculture, timber, and winter recreation.
The report cautions that even if efforts to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 80% or more and other global efforts to restabilize the climate are realized (fat chance!), it will take fifty years or more for this to occur because of the residence time of emissions already built-up in the atmosphere. These consequences of climate change are already built in to the system.
In other words, we’ve already screwed the pooch.