IEA chief economist: the world needs four new Saudi Arabias
November 11th, 2008Fresh sources of oil equivalent to the output of four Saudi Arabias will have to be found simply to maintain present levels of supply by 2030.
So says Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Dr Birol’s warning of a looming supply crunch coincided with the publication today of the IEA’s 2008 World Energy Outlook, which for the first time includes details of a comprehensive study of depletion rates in the world’s largest oilfields.
The challenge is particularly acute because, in addition to the replacement 45million daily barrels needed simply to stand still, an additional 20 million is needed to keep pace with surging global demand.
Like finding four new Saudi Arabias is going to happen.
Vehicle traffic will continue to grow over the next 22 years, as projected in Governor Kulongoski’s Transportation Vision Committee report? Not going to happen. No increase in vehicle efficiency, no increased use of biofuels or electric vehicles, will be sufficient to even make up for, much less override, the decline in oil production.
The suburbs will continue to thrive even as oil production decreases? Jeff Vail argues, contrary to Kunstler, that the cost of oil is simply to minor a component of household budgets to matter much It’s not unlikely that suburbs and the people who live there will prove to be more resilient than we expect, but the hard reality is that supplies oil for transportation will be drastically reduced and not available at any price to maintain even a semblance of the mobility of goods and people that lubricates the workings of our suburbs. The suburbs may not disappear, but they will cease to function as suburbs.
The IEA World Energy Outlook will be released tomorrow (November 12) in London for a cool €135 for a paper version and €108 for a PDF version. It concludes that limiting global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius is not “technically achievable” and we simply have to prepare to live with the consequences. ASOP-Australia had posted a copy of the Executive Summary but was compelled by the IEA to pull it. If it again becomes available, we’ll post a link to it.