IEA: saving the world isn’t “technologically feasible”
November 10th, 2008A couple of weeks ago I mentioned in this post a new study titled “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” by James Hansen and several other leading climate scientists, now available at the free-access Open Atmospheric Sciences Journal.
The authors assert that to maintain a planet similar to that on which civilization developed, an optimum CO2 level would be less than 350 ppm — a dramatic change from the existing consensus view that the danger level for CO2 is 450 ppm or higher. Atmospheric CO2 is currently 385 parts per million (ppm) and is increasing by about 2 ppm each year from the burning of fossil fuels and land use change such as the clearing of forests.
Improved data on the Earth’s climate history and ongoing observations of change, especially in the polar regions, allow scientists to compare how the Earth responded to past changes of CO2 with more recent patterns of climate changes. The results suggest that atmospheric CO2 has already entered a danger zone. For example, we have already reached CO2 levels that compromise the stability of the polar ice sheets.
According to the study, coal is the largest source of atmospheric CO2 and the one that would be most practical to eliminate. The authors argue that the only realistic way to sharply curtail CO2 is to phase out coal use except where CO2 is captured and sequestered.
While scientists are warning that the goal of 450 ppm is inadequate, international agencies are whining that 450 ppm is unachievable. Next week the IEA will issue a report saying limiting global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius is not “technically achievable” and we simply have to prepare to live with the consequences. The Executive Summary of the report has been released; the discussion of the “stabilization goal” is found at pp. 47-48. (This is the same IEA report that contains the stunning finding that the “natural rate” of post-peak oil field depletion is 9%, as I discussed here.)
Why does the IEA think limiting atmospheric CO2 to even 450 ppm is impossible? Because we would have to leave “stranded assets” – meaning we’d have to abandon coal-fired power plants “prematurely.”
“It will be necessary to face up to the reality of the cost of early capital retirement if radical measures are to be taken . . . to deliver deep cuts in emissions.”
But the IEA concludes that facing up to reality simply isn’t “technologically achievable”. Mon dieu!
Shutting down coal-fired power plants, locking the doors, and throwing away the keys doesn’t sound “technologically unachievable” to me. Of course, that means we might have to change our ways a bit . . .
Nah, never mind. As president-elect Obama says, what we really need is to “restore growth and prosperity”.
Screw Earth. We don’t need her.